Covid Vaccine effectiveness data from the US 2021 — did they work?
Executive Summary: In 2021, the 75% of Americans fully vaccinated produced under 20% of the Covid deaths, while the 25% unvaccinated Americans produced over 80% of the Covid deaths.
In 2021, the 75% of Americans fully vaccinated produced under 31% of Covid cases; while the 25% unvaccinated Americans produced nearly 70% of Covid cases.
This means the US unvaccinated had a 5X higher chance of contracting Covid compared to the vaccinated per capita, and that overall the unvaccinated had about a 15X higher probability of Covid death per capita.
Note: since 'Long Covid' occurs in 15% to 25% of Covid cases, that means there is also a 5X higher prevalence of Long Covid per capita among the unvaccinated.
Details Source https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e2.htm is a CDC analysis of 25 geographically dispersed US jurisdictions. It presents statistics on Covid incidence and death rates broken up by "wave" (dates) and age, separately for vaccinated and unvaccinated. Most of the key data is in TABLE 1.
Discussion Note that the period is Apr-Dec 2021; why? In the first quarter of 2021 we were busily vaccinating the 65+ cohort; the most vulnerable. There was an excess of unvaccinated deaths in that period and not enough vaccinated people to make a fair comparison. Including that timeperiod would skew the data to make vaccines look even better than they are.
Note that the total deaths add up to 117,207, while the total 2021 US Covid death toll was about 550,000. That is because this data is for 25 representative jurisdictions, not the whole nation. This data represents over a quarter of US deaths, so percentages from it are statistically representative of the overall US Covid situation.
Vaccine effectiveness (VE) declined from the pre-delta to the delta to the omicron waves, but vaccines still provided significant protection.
The age-standardized IRR for cases in unvaccinated versus fully vaccinated persons was 13.9 during April–May and progressively declined to 8.7 during June, 5.1 during July–November, and 3.1 during December, coinciding with the periods of Delta emergence, Delta predominance, and Omicron emergence, respectively. This decline suggests a change in crude VE for infection from 93% during April–May, to 89% during June, 80% during July–November, and to 68% during December. Age-standardized IRRs for deaths among unvaccinated versus fully vaccinated persons were relatively stable; crude VE for deaths was 95% during April–May, 94% during June, and 94% during July–November.
Booster doses were highly effective.
During October–November, age-standardized IRRs for deaths among unvaccinated persons were 53.2 compared with those in fully vaccinated persons with a booster dose and 12.7 compared with persons without a booster dose; these results represented crude VE against death of 98% and 92%, respectively.
Incidence rate ratios
IRRs were calculated by dividing incidence among unvaccinated persons by incidence among fully vaccinated persons (overall and by receipt of booster doses); after detrending the underlying linear changes in incidence
So you say, but your aggregated statistics don't actually support that claim.
Try refuting the thousands of facts
There is absolutely no need to "refute" your anecdotes. As I said above, plural of 'anecdote' is not 'data.' You've picked a nice collection of cherries, but the data, worldwide, clearly says Covid is real.
Maybe you prefer to believe in a GiAnT wOrLdWiDe CoNsPiRaCy involving millions of doctors, thousands of epidemiologists, and thousands more medical examiners. A GiAnTt CoNsPiRaCy with zero leaks and zero whistleblowers. Riiiiiiiiight
@IndrekPringi Instead I ran the numbers. You've got maybe a few hundred nicely picked cherries, probably with a fair amount of duplicates. But let's give you the benefit of the doubt and say you have 2000 cases of whatever. Over the past 15 or so months, something like TWO BILLION doses of vaccine have been administered.
Do the division, I implore you! Your carefully picked cherries are ONE IN A MILLION!!! Your carefully picked cherries are statistically insignificant. They're negligible. Do you have dyscalculia? Are you innumerate? It sure seems that way, LOL!!!
Here in the table are US death numbers for the top ten causes of death for six years ending in 2020. Notice how there are 20% more deaths in 2020 than the average of the previous five years? Doing the math, that's 500,000 excess deaths in 2020.
Notice how, in 2020, 345,000 of those 500,000 excess deaths are classified as Covid? Notice how almost all causes of death rose in 2020, including cancer & heart disease?
If there's any validity to the claim that lots of deaths have been mis-classified as Covid, why did almost all causes of death increase in 2020? Wouldn't mis-classification produce a reduction in those other causes? The evidence says mis-classification is a red herring.
@ElwoodBlues First: you have not read my post Second: you provide NO proof for your allegations which are bullshit Third you take what the CDC prints as being true Fourth you are illiterate since you can't read my post Get lost
Hiding the truth by rounding off to a single digit of precision. You're not fooling anyone with that little trick, LOL!!!
2019; US Deaths per thousand: 8.70 2020; US Deaths per thousand: 8.78
See! The increase in death rate shows up in the 2nd digit of precision (rounded). You try to minimize it by aggregating all causes of death, but you're not fooling anyone with that little trick either, LOL!!!
Look what we see when we DIS-aggregate the deaths:
That's right, most causes of death increased in 2020, and a MAJOR new cause of death appeared - Covid. If Covid deaths had merely been mis-classified, other causes of death would have decreased, but they didn't. You tried to hide the truth by aggregating all deaths together, but you're not fooling anyone with that little trick!!!
GROWTH RATE OF DEATHS
Gosh, Google doesn't know of any table on the CDC website with a column headed "GROWTH RATE OF DEATHS"!! Have you got a link to the source of this amazing data? I HOPE you can prove you didn't invent it from whole cloth!!!
