The balance of the war in Ukraine seems to be a bet between superpowers how much hardship and disruptions their own citizens are willing to withstand
None of it looks sustainable, it's just a question of who blinks first.
The Ukrainians are obviously paying with their lives, for a fight where NATO and EU membership is unclear, and the infrastructure of the country is being siezed by Russia
Russia has lost troops, equipment, all the regular international trade networks, and it's near-peer status with the US.
The US and Europe are paying with soaring energy and food costs, and the cost of producing or replenishing the weapons sent, and the voter backlash that may come if the outcomes are not clear.
All trends threaten to upend the existing global order, with pretty much all worse than where they started
The Ukrainians are obviously paying with their lives, for a fight where NATO and EU membership is unclear, and the infrastructure of the country is being siezed by Russia
Russia has lost troops, equipment, all the regular international trade networks, and it's near-peer status with the US.
The US and Europe are paying with soaring energy and food costs, and the cost of producing or replenishing the weapons sent, and the voter backlash that may come if the outcomes are not clear.
All trends threaten to upend the existing global order, with pretty much all worse than where they started
41-45, M