Is Taiwan worth going to war with China?
Admiral Samuel Paparo, the head of United States forces for the Indo-Pacific, warned Senate lawmakers about the implications of a war with China over the island of Taiwan.
Should China try to take Taiwan militarily, it would result in a 25% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contraction in Asia and it would have a “knock on effect of 10 to 12% GDP reduction in the United States of America,” Paparo told the Senate Armed Services Committee.
The unemployment rate in the U.S. would spike “7-10 points above base and likely 500,000 excess deaths of despair above base as well,” he added.
In the long term, Paparo warned that China could build alliances with smaller previously U.S.-backed countries, which could pose a threat to U.S. interests in the region and domestically.
“Partnerships mean that some of the states could confer and submit to the [People’s Republic of China’s] mode of exploitation and root to their long-range goal of setting the rules of the world and reaping the benefits of that,” Paparo added.
“A successful American intervention… [is] still a grave result, but half as grave,” he said. “The savings of a lot of human misery.”
China maintains that Taiwan is a rogue part of its country despite never having formally been under Beijing’s control. Leaders of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have explicitly not ruled out using military force to reunify Taiwan with the mainland, making the island, which plays a critical role in the production of semiconductors and technology, a possible flashpoint for a U.S.-China conflict.
The U.S. maintains a policy of “strategic ambiguity,” meaning it will not publicly say whether it would come to Taiwan’s defense directly, and it does not support any unilateral change to the status quo.
Cross-strait tension between Beijing and Taipei has escalated in recent years as China has rapidly expanded and modernized its military forces and nuclear arsenal. Beijing has also conducted more and more military drills around Taiwan, which Paparo has called “rehearsals” not “drills.”
Such a conflict would be multifaceted and could include cyber attacks, economic warfare, and would likely open up the space for other anti-U.S. actors to make moves with the U.S.’s attention focused on China.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth urged military commanders to “prioritize deterring China’s seizure of Taiwan and shoring up homeland defense by ‘assuming risk’ in Europe” in a memo issued last month.
During his first trip to the continent, he also told the U.S.’s European allies that they would need to play an increased role in their own defense as the U.S. turns its attention to the Indo-Pacific region.
In recent years, Beijing has bolstered its relationships with anti-western countries, including Russia, North Korea, and Iran. Beijing has indirectly aided Moscow’s war in Ukraine by aiding its defense industrial base, while Iran provided them with weapons, and North Korea has given them military equipment and more than ten thousand troops.
Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said their armed forces captured two Chinese fighters who were with the Russian military. It’s unclear whether they were volunteers or were provided directly by the Chinese military, which had not been reported to date.
The quartet has been able to bolster one another’s weaknesses, Paparo said during the hearing.
China, in recent years, has also tried to stake a claim in the Arctic as the melting ice has created new strategic sailing lanes that would be highly valuable if a conflict were to break out. There are eight Arctic countries, seven of which are in NATO, and the eighth is Russia; while Beijing has declared itself to be a “near-Arctic power.”
Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) warned that a Chinese shipping company has sought to purchase the space in Alaska that used to house Naval Air Facility Adak, which Paparo said he believes should be reopened.
Paparo, upon hearing that a shipping company, which Sullivan called a “front,” said, “Imagine having the Belt and Road Initiative include Alaska,” referring to China’s international exploitative strategy to build foreign partnerships through infrastructure agreements that benefit Beijing primarily, often at the expense of the nation that makes the deal.
The base is on the island of Adak, and it was the westernmost U.S. military base. It is further west than Hawaii, making it very strategically located as a forward operating base.
“It is a further western point, which would enable — and along with Eareckson [Air Station] — in order to gain time and distance on any force capability that’s looking to penetrate,” Paparo said, referencing the Air Force military airport located on the island of Shemya, in the Alaskan Aleutian Islands. “We should reopen Adak and we should enhance the ability to operate out of Eareckson.”
Paparo also noted that the Trump administration’s decision to scale back USAID would benefit China.
“I continue to advocate for it,” he said, adding that the PRC “would seize” the opportunity “in order to confer more influence to their own national power.”
Gen. Michael Langley, the commander of U.S. Africa Command, told the committee last week that China is trying to “replicate” the USAID programs that the administration canceled throughout the African continent.
Should China try to take Taiwan militarily, it would result in a 25% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contraction in Asia and it would have a “knock on effect of 10 to 12% GDP reduction in the United States of America,” Paparo told the Senate Armed Services Committee.
The unemployment rate in the U.S. would spike “7-10 points above base and likely 500,000 excess deaths of despair above base as well,” he added.
In the long term, Paparo warned that China could build alliances with smaller previously U.S.-backed countries, which could pose a threat to U.S. interests in the region and domestically.
“Partnerships mean that some of the states could confer and submit to the [People’s Republic of China’s] mode of exploitation and root to their long-range goal of setting the rules of the world and reaping the benefits of that,” Paparo added.
“A successful American intervention… [is] still a grave result, but half as grave,” he said. “The savings of a lot of human misery.”
China maintains that Taiwan is a rogue part of its country despite never having formally been under Beijing’s control. Leaders of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have explicitly not ruled out using military force to reunify Taiwan with the mainland, making the island, which plays a critical role in the production of semiconductors and technology, a possible flashpoint for a U.S.-China conflict.
The U.S. maintains a policy of “strategic ambiguity,” meaning it will not publicly say whether it would come to Taiwan’s defense directly, and it does not support any unilateral change to the status quo.
Cross-strait tension between Beijing and Taipei has escalated in recent years as China has rapidly expanded and modernized its military forces and nuclear arsenal. Beijing has also conducted more and more military drills around Taiwan, which Paparo has called “rehearsals” not “drills.”
Such a conflict would be multifaceted and could include cyber attacks, economic warfare, and would likely open up the space for other anti-U.S. actors to make moves with the U.S.’s attention focused on China.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth urged military commanders to “prioritize deterring China’s seizure of Taiwan and shoring up homeland defense by ‘assuming risk’ in Europe” in a memo issued last month.
During his first trip to the continent, he also told the U.S.’s European allies that they would need to play an increased role in their own defense as the U.S. turns its attention to the Indo-Pacific region.
In recent years, Beijing has bolstered its relationships with anti-western countries, including Russia, North Korea, and Iran. Beijing has indirectly aided Moscow’s war in Ukraine by aiding its defense industrial base, while Iran provided them with weapons, and North Korea has given them military equipment and more than ten thousand troops.
Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said their armed forces captured two Chinese fighters who were with the Russian military. It’s unclear whether they were volunteers or were provided directly by the Chinese military, which had not been reported to date.
The quartet has been able to bolster one another’s weaknesses, Paparo said during the hearing.
China, in recent years, has also tried to stake a claim in the Arctic as the melting ice has created new strategic sailing lanes that would be highly valuable if a conflict were to break out. There are eight Arctic countries, seven of which are in NATO, and the eighth is Russia; while Beijing has declared itself to be a “near-Arctic power.”
Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) warned that a Chinese shipping company has sought to purchase the space in Alaska that used to house Naval Air Facility Adak, which Paparo said he believes should be reopened.
Paparo, upon hearing that a shipping company, which Sullivan called a “front,” said, “Imagine having the Belt and Road Initiative include Alaska,” referring to China’s international exploitative strategy to build foreign partnerships through infrastructure agreements that benefit Beijing primarily, often at the expense of the nation that makes the deal.
The base is on the island of Adak, and it was the westernmost U.S. military base. It is further west than Hawaii, making it very strategically located as a forward operating base.
“It is a further western point, which would enable — and along with Eareckson [Air Station] — in order to gain time and distance on any force capability that’s looking to penetrate,” Paparo said, referencing the Air Force military airport located on the island of Shemya, in the Alaskan Aleutian Islands. “We should reopen Adak and we should enhance the ability to operate out of Eareckson.”
Paparo also noted that the Trump administration’s decision to scale back USAID would benefit China.
“I continue to advocate for it,” he said, adding that the PRC “would seize” the opportunity “in order to confer more influence to their own national power.”
Gen. Michael Langley, the commander of U.S. Africa Command, told the committee last week that China is trying to “replicate” the USAID programs that the administration canceled throughout the African continent.
