@
twiigss There’s a flaw in this, however, and—like you, I am not looking for an argument.
Here is how outbreaks start.
A population has unvaccinated or under vaccinated people within it. That would be people who only got a single dose of MMR or have incomplete immunity (won’t go into the weeds on this, but one dose confers 93% immunity, two doses properly given confers 97% immunity).
Measles is very contagious—90% of susceptible people will contract measles when exposed. Most will not know when they are exposed.
For “herd immunity” in measles CDC recommends 95-97% minimum of vaccinated population. But herd immunity only means that enough people are immune to break the chain of transmission (I.e. those susceptible never come in contact with the virus because most people are already immune).
Now—here’s the problem. During the early days of incubation, the exposed patients are contagious (
very contagious)—but asymptomatic. Often school age children in a population of low vaccination (e.g. Mennonites). Those children become infectious and spread the virus to other susceptible children before
they know that
they are now sources of infection.
The MMR vaccine has been in use since 1963, is very effective, and very safe.
Approximately 1% of children who contract measles will die from it even with modern care. Some will suffer permanent disability. These are preventable with the vaccine.
It should be noted that as of 2000, measles was eradicated in the USA but has resurged now due to parents not vaccinating their children.
So far, there have been two children die from measles in this outbreak and scores of hospitalizations. An adult died with measles (not known if this death was
due to measles or due to other causes
with coincidental measles) in another state.
