Mysterious Lull in Chinese Military Flights Leaves Taiwan Guessing
Wall Street Journal
Mar-12-2026
For much of this decade, China has routinely sent warplanes into the airspace around Taiwan, a near-daily display of military might and reminder of Beijing’s threat to seize the island by force.
But a sudden and unusual lull in Chinese flights that began nearly two weeks ago—punctuated by the reappearance of aircraft on Wednesday—has stoked uncertainty about what Beijing is doing while the world focuses on war in the Middle East.
China’s military has sent planes near Taiwan on only two days since Feb. 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel began the attack on Iran. Chinese naval sailings around the island, another element in what Taiwan calls “gray-zone harassment” by Beijing, have persisted throughout the period.
On Thursday, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said five Chinese aircraft had been spotted in the preceding 24 hours around the island, in addition to six vessels from China’s navy.
“A period of this length with little or no air activity, while maritime activity remains consistent, is highly unusual,” said Ben Lewis, whose research organization, PLATracker, documents Chinese military activity.
Compounding the anxiety about the recent lull are the war in Iran, the annual Chinese leadership meetings that concluded on Thursday, and preparations for a summit in Beijing between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Trump.
In such an environment, the pause in Chinese flights has sown anxiety simply because it is hard to figure out what is behind it.
“Everybody has a theory, but nobody has an answer,” said Drew Thompson, a former Pentagon official responsible for China and Taiwan and now a senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. “The weapon is uncertainty.”
“What concerns me is we don’t know what it means,” he said. “It’s perpetual threats without communication, without dialogue, without thresholds.”
Taiwan Defense Minister Wellington Koo said Tuesday that the Taiwanese military remains vigilant because “Beijing’s intent to annex us remains.”
“We cannot rely on a single indicator like the absence of aircraft. Chinese naval vessels still surround us daily,” Koo said. Taiwanese security officials said they are currently looking into the absence with their allies.
Meanwhile, a U.S. Navy maritime patrol aircraft transited the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday in a flight that the U.S. Seventh Fleet said “demonstrates the United States’ commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.” U.S. forces periodically transit the waters between Taiwan and the mainland in such “freedom of navigation” operations.
China’s Communist leadership considers self-ruled, democratic Taiwan to be part of its territory and hasn’t ruled out the use of force to take control of the island. What were once occasional aircraft sorties near Taiwan’s airspace have evolved into regular flights that probe Taiwan’s defenses.
China’s Defense Ministry and Taiwan Affairs Office didn’t respond to requests for comment.
In Taipei, theories abound about the flight lull. One security official suggested that Beijing might be trying to get Washington to see a reduced military threat, lower its guard, stop selling weapons to Taiwan and eventually give in to China’s claim to the island. Xi’s recent purges of senior Chinese military officials could also be influencing air force activity, the official suggested.
Lewis of PLATracker suggested the lull could serve as an olive branch signaling a desire for stability ahead of Xi’s meeting with Trump.
“Given reports that the U.S. has delayed a major arms package to Taiwan, I think it is a realistic possibility that there is a quid pro quo regarding creating positive conditions for a productive dialogue,” Lewis said. The Wall Street Journal reported in February that a U.S. arms package for Taiwan was in limbo following pressure from Xi.
K. Tristan Tang, a Taipei-based nonresident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research, said the lull likely reflected a revision of Chinese military training procedures.
“The near-zero sortie counts seen on some days since February should be viewed as an extreme manifestation of a longer-term trend, rather than a sudden development,” he said.
Mar-12-2026
For much of this decade, China has routinely sent warplanes into the airspace around Taiwan, a near-daily display of military might and reminder of Beijing’s threat to seize the island by force.
But a sudden and unusual lull in Chinese flights that began nearly two weeks ago—punctuated by the reappearance of aircraft on Wednesday—has stoked uncertainty about what Beijing is doing while the world focuses on war in the Middle East.
China’s military has sent planes near Taiwan on only two days since Feb. 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel began the attack on Iran. Chinese naval sailings around the island, another element in what Taiwan calls “gray-zone harassment” by Beijing, have persisted throughout the period.
On Thursday, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said five Chinese aircraft had been spotted in the preceding 24 hours around the island, in addition to six vessels from China’s navy.
“A period of this length with little or no air activity, while maritime activity remains consistent, is highly unusual,” said Ben Lewis, whose research organization, PLATracker, documents Chinese military activity.
Compounding the anxiety about the recent lull are the war in Iran, the annual Chinese leadership meetings that concluded on Thursday, and preparations for a summit in Beijing between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Trump.
In such an environment, the pause in Chinese flights has sown anxiety simply because it is hard to figure out what is behind it.
“Everybody has a theory, but nobody has an answer,” said Drew Thompson, a former Pentagon official responsible for China and Taiwan and now a senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. “The weapon is uncertainty.”
“What concerns me is we don’t know what it means,” he said. “It’s perpetual threats without communication, without dialogue, without thresholds.”
Taiwan Defense Minister Wellington Koo said Tuesday that the Taiwanese military remains vigilant because “Beijing’s intent to annex us remains.”
“We cannot rely on a single indicator like the absence of aircraft. Chinese naval vessels still surround us daily,” Koo said. Taiwanese security officials said they are currently looking into the absence with their allies.
Meanwhile, a U.S. Navy maritime patrol aircraft transited the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday in a flight that the U.S. Seventh Fleet said “demonstrates the United States’ commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.” U.S. forces periodically transit the waters between Taiwan and the mainland in such “freedom of navigation” operations.
China’s Communist leadership considers self-ruled, democratic Taiwan to be part of its territory and hasn’t ruled out the use of force to take control of the island. What were once occasional aircraft sorties near Taiwan’s airspace have evolved into regular flights that probe Taiwan’s defenses.
China’s Defense Ministry and Taiwan Affairs Office didn’t respond to requests for comment.
In Taipei, theories abound about the flight lull. One security official suggested that Beijing might be trying to get Washington to see a reduced military threat, lower its guard, stop selling weapons to Taiwan and eventually give in to China’s claim to the island. Xi’s recent purges of senior Chinese military officials could also be influencing air force activity, the official suggested.
Lewis of PLATracker suggested the lull could serve as an olive branch signaling a desire for stability ahead of Xi’s meeting with Trump.
“Given reports that the U.S. has delayed a major arms package to Taiwan, I think it is a realistic possibility that there is a quid pro quo regarding creating positive conditions for a productive dialogue,” Lewis said. The Wall Street Journal reported in February that a U.S. arms package for Taiwan was in limbo following pressure from Xi.
K. Tristan Tang, a Taipei-based nonresident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research, said the lull likely reflected a revision of Chinese military training procedures.
“The near-zero sortie counts seen on some days since February should be viewed as an extreme manifestation of a longer-term trend, rather than a sudden development,” he said.
