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I Just Want To Share What Is On My Mind

Covid-19 and the USA

I hope there aren't too many people out there with such blinkered knowledge as one out there. He seems unaware that the virus is already deep rooted in your country. And even if there are people who have yet to meet someone and breathe the same droplet inflected air, they soon will. It is likely that everyone will encounter this pandemic. I believe I actually had it myself just after the New Year, unknowingly of course. It can be mild. But it can also wipe out great swathes of society. It is possible to treat the symptoms with isolation and intensive care, but how many hospital beds do you have in the USA? Enough to care simultaneously with, let's be optimistic, only 5% of your population? I calculate that as 16.7 million people will become seriously infected requiring, if you're not careful, simultaneous treatment. Now, I know from personal experience that your health system ranks with the best in the world, if not the best. But, 16 million people in a short peaked bell curve? No, it can't. So, your only alternative is to lock down seriously by zones. This transfers just as easily at a soccer match or baseball game or children's birthday party. It is non discriminatory. If, as you suggest, New Orleans is a centre of social interaction, then yes, of course it too will suffer. So it, like everywhere else, must be locked down. And with minimal exception other than to support the health care machine trying to cope against an invisible tsunami. You must flatten the bell curve, now, and for months to come. The alternative is more stark than your understanding could comprehend.

One final point. This pandemic virus is bad enough without the potential exacerbation of civil unrest if people segregate parts of society off for whatever ill-considered blame and possibly homophobic prejudice. Simply not helpful and redirecting attention away from the simple fact that "we are ALL in the same boat, worldwide".

Please, do reconsider your dismissal of this virus as merely a sniveling cold. As good as the USA might be, it doesn't have 16 million coffins or graves. It will, like Iran, have to resort to mass pits and trenches.

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Mamapolo2016 · F

[quote] The 1918 flu, which was known as the Spanish flu, didn't actually originate in Spain. It had a mortality rate of 2.5% and killed more people — 30 million to 50 million — than the 20 million who died in World War I. If the 4.5% mortality rate of COVID-19 drops, it won't be as bad as the 1918 flu. If it continues on its current trajectory, it will be almost twice as deadly.[/quote]

Health and Science
Article by Berkeley Lovelace, Jr.

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hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M

@Mamapolo2016 Too funny!!! At its current trajectory it will be about the same as seasonal flue or less. Using today's stats it is at 1% death rate in the US. That isn't really very accurate since we have no idea how many are exposed but not tested or remain asymptomatic.

MarmeeMarch · M

@Mamapolo2016 Germany got the blessing of the Spanish Flu -
However I'll bet it started from - Guess who ?

yeronlyman · 51-55, M

@Mamapolo2016 final death rate will likely be close to 1% for covid19
But about 10x annual influenza

I suspect the war with covid19 will be declared over by April to August 2021 all going well

Mamapolo2016 · F

@hippyjoe1955 We haven't had it here in the US long enough to have a clue what the mortality rate is here.

Globally, with the reported cases (there are without doubt many, MANY cases that are never reported because the cases aren't bad enough to seek medical attention) the number of known cases divided into the number of deaths is 16%.
Because of the unreported, unknown cases, that's not the mortality rate, but it's enough to give even a doubter pause. Or should be.

Do you really think they've shut down the world because a few elderly died?

hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M

@Mamapolo2016 Actually it is 1.2% among the confirmed cases. Fun with numbers.

Valentine · M

@Mamapolo2016 I'm sure you know that this virus does not only affect the elderly.

yeronlyman · 51-55, M

@hippyjoe1955 in the end likely to be less <1% depends tho

We have lots of non confirmed cases that aren’t know about
Deaths are usually absolutes
Confirmed cases underestimated

Mamapolo2016 · F

@hippyjoe1955 I misspoke. What I referred to was the mortality rate of the known cases that have had an outcome, where the known patients either recovered or died. That's the 16%.

Mamapolo2016 · F

@Valentine I do. But as everyone keeps pointing out, it is more deadly to the elderly en masse than it is to younger people. But it has killed younger, healthier people and it will kill more.

hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M

@Mamapolo2016 Dr. Deborah Birx on Thursday provided encouraging coronavirus numbers suggesting that some of the predictive models were incorrect.

“There’s no model right now, no reality on the ground, where we can see that 60-70 percent of Americans are going to get infected in the next 10-12 weeks,” she said.

Without specifically naming the Imperial College, Brix referred to models that predicted there could be 500,000 coronavirus deaths in the United Kingdom and 2.2 million deaths in the United States.

The scientist of the model revised the estimate of deaths in the United Kingdom to be roughly 20,000 people or fewer.

Birx said that the actual data coming in from other countries were different than some of the direst projections.

She noted that in major countries, there was never an attack rate of over one in over 1,000 people.

“The predictions of the models don’t match the reality on the ground on either China, South Korea, or Italy,” she said.

Birx also addressed reports that raised the alarm of New York City hospitals running out of ICU beds, ventilators, and creating “Do Not Resuscitate” (DNR) policies for patients.

She revealed that she spoke with health officials in New York, that there were still ICU beds and 1000-2000 ventilators available, and that there were no DNR policies enacted.

“We don’t have evidence of that right now,” she said.

Mamapolo2016 · F

@hippyjoe1955 I devoutly hope she's right. Currently, my main concern is being as careful as I can so I don't get it and pass it on to someone it does kill.

Given that the US reported over 17000 new cases [b]in the past 24 hours[/b], I think that's a legitimate concern.

I hope it is 1.2%. I wish it was zero. But there's no way to tell WHICH people will fall into that 1.2%. The dead could be someone I love - or someone you love.

hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M

@Mamapolo2016 All the evidence available points to her being right. All the other predictions were based on a very very flawed computer model and a director of the WHO that should be fired for incompetence. The error was immediately evident. A ratio is numerator over denominator. We know the numerator (number of dead) we have no way of knowing the denominator (number of people infected or immune) in part because of lack of testing and in part because if you don't get sick where do you fit in the ratio? In the US 1.2% of those who have been confirmed have died. Which way will that trend? Likely down as treatment protocols are improved and the number of confirmed cases increases thanks to increased testing. As is always the case the panic is worse than the disease.

Mamapolo2016 · F

@hippyjoe1955 I have seen no panic where I live, except over toilet paper. I see the vast majority of people doing what they have been asked to do - not increasing the problem.

Discussing the situation is not panic. There's a good bit of territory between panicking over it and ignoring it.

You have no idea how hard I hope you are right.

hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M

@Mamapolo2016 So the schools are all open and all the businesses are running full tilt? No need for social distancing? No need for marks on the floors of the various shops so you don't get too close? You don't see people in masks and rubber gloves?

Mamapolo2016 · F

@hippyjoe1955 The basic truth is that 1.2% is a small but impressive number. It means 12 in 1000.

I would be inclined to take seriously the decision of having surgery or taking medication that resulted in 12 in a 1000 dying.

We will know better in a few weeks where the truth lies. In the meantime, everybody is guessing. Dr. Birks did not say the high estimates were wrong - she said we have no evidence they're right. And we don't.

Nor do we have evidence that she is right.

You are not going to convince me and I'm not going to convince you, so we are both wasting our time.

To directly answer your questions - the schools are closed (not so much for the children, who blessedly seem safe from this so far) but for the adults involved. While I am sure there are many who are wearing masks and gloves, I haven't seen them.

Time alone will tell - and when it all shakes out, I hope we are embarrassed by our over-reaction.

hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M

@Mamapolo2016 Of those who have been infected and tested. We have no idea how many people have actually been in contact with the disease. A friend of mine is battling a cold. It has lasted over a week. He self isolated and no one else in the office has had the same cold. Was it Covid? Could be. The health system isn't going to test him since he has completely recovered. My son had a mild cold that lasted 3 days. Was it covid? Might have been. The health agency simply told him to stay home and self isolate. He won't be tested either. From all reports covid acts just like what those two claimed since some have a nasty cold and others a very mild one. The fact is that not all the sufferers are being tested and so we go back to the simple math I pointed out earlier. If you don't know the size of your denominator the size of the numerator is not important. Yes it is sad that some people have died and I truly feel bad for the family left behind. It is rough but if we are not careful we will have a lot more preventable deaths on our hands from the panic we have brought upon ourselves.

JoeyFoxx · 51-55, M

@hippyjoe1955 1.2%?? Where did you get your numbers sparky?

The lowest projected estimate is actually 1.4%

We do not have a statistically meaningful sample of concluded cases to know what the actual mortality rate is, but it has been as high as 5%... and considerably higher in Italy.

There’s no need to be an alarmist. But why should we allow you to be ignorant in public and not challenge you?

hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M

@JoeyFoxx CDC has them published. Where do you get your data from. Google the number of covid related deaths and divide it by the number of confirmed covid cases. It works out to about 1.2%.

Valentine · M

@Mamapolo2016 I share your concern and I hope your values. For those here who don't, or perhaps just see things in a different way, the base line is that many people will either die or be left with weaker lungs going forward. We can toss statistics and incomplete data around to our heart's content, it does not escape the urgently needed realisation that many deaths and ongoing infirmities are [i]avoidable[/i]. Simply by everyone socially distancing, and supporting the health system which will try to care for some less fortunate.

If it helps get this simple message across to some here, I will gladly 'dance around like a little girl' for them. But please, don't expect photos.

Mamapolo2016 · F

@Valentine I agree. And I don't want photos. 😁

"A man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still." --- Benjamin Franklin

Dlrannie · 31-35, F

@MarmeeMarch Reputedly it started in Kentucky so really should be called the American Flu 🙂

Mamapolo2016 · F

@Dlrannie I never heard Kentucky.

[quote] Scientists dispute where it started. Some say it originated near Fort Riley, Kansas, while others point to France, China and Britain. [/quote]...Louisville Courier Journal

But Kansas would make it the American flu, too.

Valentine · M

@Dlrannie Lol? I did jest a few days ago it might have been better named GI-19 as 'Chyyyna' was blaming Covid on a few visiting American soldiers in Wuhan in October last year. So, here we are again. Kentucky eh? That's just up from Tennessee. Where my daughter is. Perhaps she was the 'super-spreader'??!

Dlrannie · 31-35, F

@Valentine I hope your daughter remains safe 🙂

Valentine · M

@Dlrannie She is, thank you. You too 🤗

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