I love science
For northern hemisphere countries that have experienced significant flares of Sars2 there are four factors that make the pandemic likely to significantly decline due to lowering herd susceptibility between April and August 2021...
1) sars2 infected population, varies country to country but likely to be 10-20%+. Evidence is immunity will be likely to be years or decades for many (sars1 shows similar)
2) cross immunity to Coronaviruses appears to give Immunity to sars2 in varying populations but varies... average around 40% approximately. This is a big game changer and potentially the current largest influencer of optimism. This was a huge influencer on 2009 H1N1 and likely what kept it subdued and it never reached anything like 1918 pandemic levels
3) vaccine arriving early 2021. Will be needed for those over 60, those with medical diseases and commodities and healthcare workers
If 1 & 2 above prove to hold, the vaccine will only be needed for about 25-35% of the population
4) seasonality... when April / may comes the virus will naturally subdue
The April - august prediction is in approx keeping with 2009 H1N1 timeframes and natural course
Don’t stop wearing your masks
Don’t stop social distancing
But there is light at the end of the tunnel
51-55, M
