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How will the markets behave if Trump wins the presidency?
It's rather a shocking possibility. But this article in NYT shows that it can indeed be a really scary prospect with severe global implications. And it's not some scary thoughts being peddled.

Assume, for a moment, that Donald J. Trump wins the presidency.

But what exactly happens the day after? To markets? To the economy?

The conventional wisdom is that, right off the bat, the stock market would fall precipitously. Simon Johnson, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist, posited that Mr. Trump’s presidency would “likely cause the stock market to crash and plunge the world into recession.” He predicted that Mr. Trump’s “anti-trade policies would cause a sharp slowdown, much like the British are experiencing” after their vote to exit the European Union.
In explaining his prediction, Professor Johnson wrote that Europe’s economy is so fragile that “Trump’s trade-led recession would tip Europe back into full-blown recession, which would likely precipitate a serious banking crisis.” After that, he continued: “If this risk were not contained — and the probability of a European banking debacle is already disconcertingly high — there would be a further negative spiral. Either way, the effects on emerging markets and all lower-income countries would be dramatic.”
SW User
44 replies
Nov 2, 2016
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SW User
I don't think anything drastic will happen. Remember the hue and cry the whole world made against Brexit? The world drifts along as always. The world is much too big to be affected by one mortal.
SW User
Brexit hasn't happened yet and still the economic indicators are depressed. The markets are waiting when article 50 is formally invoked and serious negotiations start. So till 2019 when brexit formally kicks in it will probably remain depressed like this.
SW User
Yeah. But that isn't the only reason for the market depression. There is the Chinese excess production and so many other things.... the low oil prices etc
SW User
@dreamerfrombirth: it will hit UK even harder with brexit.
SW User
I have a weird lurking feeling Trump will win. I also know that by one month everything, the markets, stock etc will be back to how it always was. Perhaps the depressed state which has been prevailing for many months might remain. However, there won't be any apocalyptic occurrence because of Trump's victory
SW User
@dreamerfrombirth: assuming it's the best case scenario as you mention - marginally depressed- then what's the point of all this hatred, divisiveness and campaign promises from the Trump campaign? The last few years under Obama has shown consistent improvements. It will be a setback.
SW User
Hatred and Divisiveness:
Against the Mexicans: He wants to curb illegal entry of migrants. Which is good for his countrymen because they keep complaining that they don't get the jobs. And it is a valid concern. He says he wants to stop border tresspassing and give preferance to those who have legally acquired permission to migrate and work in the USA. What is wrong with that? Its not that he hates the Mexicans. They must legally enter. If they do that, they are welcome. If not, sorry they must leave.
Since you are from India, you must be aware of the hue and cry the people of Assam have made against Bangladeshis entering through the porous borders. The concern is legitimate. And as an elected representative, he will look into popular opinion of his people. Just as our own politicians.
Against Muslims: This is vote bank politics. But isn't that what the BJP also, in consonance with the RSS has done for decades? I am not saying they are right. Never ever. But that is the job of the politician. To tap into popular mood. But has BJP and RSS caused Muslims to flee India? No. It will be the same with Trump in America.
Against Women:
Come on! People have been making such a hue and cry about something he seemed to be telling close friends in private.
As a woman, I know it is crass. But if people will tell me that they don't talk such things to their close friends, I will never believe them. Even women talk such things behind closed doors. That doesn't mean they are women/men haters. Yes, there is a thing called locker room talk. And I think those criticizing that, are being hypocritical to some extent.
SW User
@dreamerfrombirth: I hate to tell you this but you obviously need to have better company in life if you think it's locker room talk. And I assume you think the women who claim he did exactly what he said in those tapes were never sexual assaulted.
SW User
I'm not saying he is a saint. If he was I would have bowed down and worshipped him. He is flawed. However he is the better of both options. This is my belief.
I may need better company. But the fact remains that the majority of people have spoken such things in some point of their lives
SW User
@dreamerfrombirth: you still haven't answered my question. Saying and doing it according to those women who have accused him of sexual harassment. So I am assuming that's okay with you too.
SW User
I don't know whether he did it or not.
What about the women Bill Clinton assaulted? They were present in the final debate.
He still became president right?
You didn't reply to what I said about Mexicans and muslims

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How will the markets behave if Trump wins the pres... | Politics | Replies | Similar Worlds