Could Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson be the next First Minister of Scotland?

I shudder at the thought but it has been on my mind quite a bit today. Scotland hasn't elected the Tory party since the Westminster election in 1955. After that the Labour Party took over and eventually in large part thanks to Thatcher would become unbeatable in Scotland until the rise of the Scottish National Party in the mid 2000s and onward.

The independence referendum in 2014 helped the SNP become a political giant as a party but it also led to a bit of a revival for the Scottish Tories. With Scottish Labour caught between wanting to appeal to their left base in Scotland and wanting to stand with the Tories in opposing independence they made themselves unappealing to both their base who just saw them standing with "the enemy" and unionists who saw them as half hearted supporters of the union. Now the Scottish Tories have the second most MSPs and the second most MPs in Scottish seats and managed to beat big SNP names like Angus Robertson and the former First Minister Alex Salmond (that one still hurts me).

So the Tories have come second which is a big achievement and Ruth will just avoid all talk of policy and shout no to independence despite nobody talking about it so she can keep the unionists fearing another referendum and stay away from showing the Scottish Tories as being just like their English counterparts so that they can hold on to second as they could never get any more support from anywhere else.

Then just a couple of weeks ago Scotgov/the SNP release the growth commission report to give people an idea of what an independent Scotland could really look like and open up debate about it. Along with her no surrender, long live the union speech after this Ruth also gave another speech at Glasgow University in which she actually spoke about other things. For example she talked about our need for immigration and how the Tories down south can't make more cuts to the NHS and in fact need to start spending on it to get it out of crisis. She sounded rather like she wasn't actually a Tory and that she would actually stand uo for Scots and get her pals down South to do what we want for once. Now she says this after years of avoiding talk of policy and voting against measures that would have helped stop the deliberate ruining of our NHS but how many will pay attention to that?. Could they be positioning themselves to not only take the unionist vote but some from Labour and the SNP voters who don't support independence? I believe it is unlikely to work but Scottish Labour are also targetting SNP voters. As I said I don't believe it will happen but it is the first time I have considered the possibility that it even could happen so it is bothering me. It looks like Ruth may believe she is in with a chance of making history.

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Burnley123 · 41-45, M

She is a very capable politician and has an appeal that goes beyond the traditional Tory base. If she was the leader of the UK Tories, she would increase their vote.

Credit for political jujitsu but she is still an ideological Conservative. She has supported the Tory austerity program which has hurt Scotland and many other places. A good image covers a lot of sins and the media give her a very easy time compared with other politicians we could mention.

The SNP have lost their dominance and it will be hard to get that back. They caught the post-referendum campaign wave in 2015 and it also coincided with the fruition of Scottish Labour's long abandonment of their base. The SNP could once claim to be all things to all people but no longer. Their policies have a mixed record domestically, in spite of having some good MPs and MSP's. They are caught between pushing for a new referendum, which is too close to the last one but is their reason for existence and also with keeping moderates on board. They struggle to do both which is why they are losing radical support to Corbyn's Labour and why the moderates like Davidson. There is an argument that the SNP have got too comfortable in their respective positions in Westminster and Holyrood to be truly radical.

I think they will stay the biggest party for a good few years though. They still have a solid lead and Sturgeon remains capable leader. Labour has moved closer to their roots but lacks a heavyweight figurehead in Scotland. Conversely, the Tories are over-achieving because of their leader. They won't overachieve by that much though.

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thatscottishguy · 26-30, M

I think most of the left wing indy voters who are fed up with the SNP either remained Labour throughout or will go to one of the other parties. You also have those who voted no but don't believe Labour or the Tories would stand against Westminster. Also most who seen it as a way to get rid of the tories will still feel the same. A non-Blairite Labour would just mean 5 years (if that) of a good government and then we could be back to normal. Nobody would see it as a permanent solution and also still may believe the Corbyn government (or whoever it would be) still doesn't care about us.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@thatscottishguy The Labour vote has gone up in Scotland though. I get that you are a hardcore indie voter and respectfully disagree.

The challenges facing Corbyn's Labour are immense though the same can be said of Scots Indie. Forming your own country would be very hard economically and the currency issue hasn't been resolved. Also, it's hard to see them building a case for a referendum given that the SNP have been timid on this issue AND have a slowly declining vote.

If you did form a successfully independent social democratic state, I would be pleased to be wrong. I don't think its fair to claim Corbyn doesn't care about Scotland. For the Labour left, politics is a class issue.

thatscottishguy · 26-30, M

Many would think they a Corbyn government wouldn't care about us though. Many already think that about him due to the whole Ireland thing. I think you are overestimating how many are in it just because we want a left wing government. Yes Tory rule was a factor that drove many to the independence movement but it was Tory rule due to another nation electing them. The fact that it wasn't us that elected them is more important than the Tory rule part. I would say almost all who have become indy supporters have decided that independnce is more important than left or right. The increase in supoort for Labour gas occurred but how many were SNP voters? Most will be people who just decided to get their membership back because of Corbyn (like someone I know) but I doubt many have come from the SNP or the YES parties. I appreciate the problems that face the SNP but I can't see Labour hugely benefitting from it.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

If you'd posted about the orange one, you would have got 30 replies and 90 views by now. Still, I'm glad you didn't.

thatscottishguy · 26-30, M

That's why I rarely do political posts now. I have been feeling the urge to post more in recent weeks though. Actually having something to get behind again has helped.

firefall · 61-69, M

it makes sense for her to try this, and while I agree it's unlikely, it's by no means impossible.

thatscottishguy · 26-30, M

I can't stop thinking about it today. I've been feeling so happy and ready to go for another referendum campaign since the growth commission report as well. Now I'm worried about this😂. Why I both love and hate politics I suppose.

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