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Donald Trump will win reelection. Do you agree ... ?

[quote]The United States
Donald Trump will win reelection (55 percent)
This is a close one, but I think the balance of evidence favors a Trump reelection. The basics are simple: Decades of political science work on election forecasting imply that presidents running for reelection enjoy an incumbency advantage, that a strong economy helps the incumbent’s party, and that high levels of US military fatalities hurt the incumbent’s party.

In short: Trump is the incumbent, the economy is growing while unemployment stays very low, and despite some close calls, Trump hasn’t started new wars or expanded existing ones in ways that kill a lot of US service members. Combine that with Trump’s geographic advantage over the Democratic nominee in the Electoral College, and I think he has a better than even chance of winning.

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[b]https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions[/b]
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Spot on ... 32 states for sure ... a potential to take 42

42 if Biden runs
Nimbus · M
@questionWeaver Why the Biden difference?
@Nimbus

Sleepy Joe has a negative/zero appeal in 4 key states ... NM, MN, OR and CO .. Joe is a big urban guy with no ability to rally rural populations without cities

And his negatives in NH, NC and ME ... essentially hand those to Trump

Where he is strong ... they do not need votes (CA,NY,DE,NJ,MA, MD)

The net effect is the people in those 7 more states could power them to Trump ... implying it is likely Trump keeps his prize 3 ... taking him to a smashing 42 states ... without concern for the popular vote
Nimbus · M
@questionWeaver K, got it.

Similar here with Doris winning.
No real opposition.