Only logged in members can reply and interact with the post.
Join SimilarWorlds for FREE »

Donald Trump will win reelection. Do you agree ... ?

[quote]The United States
Donald Trump will win reelection (55 percent)
This is a close one, but I think the balance of evidence favors a Trump reelection. The basics are simple: Decades of political science work on election forecasting imply that presidents running for reelection enjoy an incumbency advantage, that a strong economy helps the incumbent’s party, and that high levels of US military fatalities hurt the incumbent’s party.

In short: Trump is the incumbent, the economy is growing while unemployment stays very low, and despite some close calls, Trump hasn’t started new wars or expanded existing ones in ways that kill a lot of US service members. Combine that with Trump’s geographic advantage over the Democratic nominee in the Electoral College, and I think he has a better than even chance of winning.

[/quote]


[b]https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions[/b]
This page is a permanent link to the reply below and its nested replies. See all post replies »
windinhishair · 61-69, M
It is unlikely when about 55% of the nation remains opposed to him. But there is a whole election season ahead of us, plus an impeachment trial, so let's see what happens in the next few months before calling the election.
Nimbus · M
@windinhishair The impeachment is going nowhere surely?
windinhishair · 61-69, M
@Nimbus As it looks at the moment, he will not be removed from office. But with Trump, you can never take anything at face value, so we will need to wait until the trial itself. Regardless of the outcome, Trump will always be one of the very few impeached presidents for all history.
Nimbus · M
@windinhishair 👍️
wanderingelf · 61-69, M
@Nimbus It is unlikely of course that he will be removed from office, although he has an amazing capacity for creating enemies out of allies for no apparent purpose. But from a political science perspective in general, I'd sure hate to be the campaign manager trying to get somebody reelected with strings of scandals and bonafide crimes against humanity (child separations, and subsequent deaths and disappearances) to his credit, not to mention coddling an errant psychotic Navy SEAL whose comrades all agreed that he'd committed atrocities. Impeachment added to that certainly does not make him a more attractive candidate. Nor can he count on carrying the same midwest rural states that formed his base in 2016 - - he's screwed them over royally with his idiotic trade war. Many of those farmers have gone under, or been forced to rely on the bailouts he's contrived - - which goes very much against the grain of their culture and integrity. So far Joe Biden polls very well against Trump in virtually every battleground state - - in some cases leading by double digits. But it's early and there is much water to pass under the bridge yet - - I'm actually quite eager to see how many new ways in which Donald Trump can shoot himself in the foot between now and then!
windinhishair · 61-69, M
@wanderingelf Your comments are spot on. 👍️
Nimbus · M
@wanderingelf Interesting and fair assessment 👍️
sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M
@wanderingelf …..and a partridge in a pear tree