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Is it possible to have a second referendum on Brexit?

Personally, I don't think it is. Much to the disappointment of Remainers, there has been little shift in public opinion over the last two years. An average of polls shows a very small percentage shift to remain but well within the margin of error and nothing like the decisive shift that would be needed to mandate a second referendum.

In addition, there has been a hardening of attitudes among leave voters, with a majority of them saying they want a hard Brexit or a no deal Brexit. A no deal would be a disaster for everyone but if 98% of climate scientists can't convince partisan opposition of facts they don't want to believe, then a consensus of economists will have no such luck here.

When remainers see an incompetent government in meltdown over a bad idea that was impossible to deliver, leavers see an incompetent government in meltdown because it has sold out on achievable promises. That Britain is a second tier world power in a weak negotiating position is not what people want to hear.

In addition, the 'People's Vote' campaign has failed to connect with anyone outside its metropolitan liberal base. Worse than this, it has divided its base by alienating Corbyn supporters like myself on the Labour left. So much time and energy has been spent on blaming Corbyn for Brexit and in plotting a new breakaway party that left remainers have suspicion of the PV campaigners which borders on hostility. The remain camp is divided along the lines of the Labour Party Civil war two years ago.

Most Labour voters backed remain, especially in the cities but in small regional towns the picture is mixed and most Labour MPs are actually against a people's vote. Corbyn is not prepared to fight for the Brexit issue because its not his top priority and also because its not a battle he can win.

There are no good or easy options in this complex and messy situation. I still think that some kind of compromise soft Brexit is the most likely outcome but that will please nobody. The shit show must go on.

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Longleggedlady · 31-35, F

There is a simple solution available but no one with the guts to do it which is simply to cancel the whole thing
There are too many divisions for any deal to get through Parliament it will be catch 22 situation indefinitely and besides which whatever is tabled if it is not liked will be legally challenged right up and into the ECJ again and again the funds are there and waiting to do it

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Longleggedlady · 31-35, F

@SW-User I am usually Tory voter I would instantly swing back if they would just cancel this nonsense

SW-User

@Longleggedlady Oops, no offence intended. I think half the problem is that it splits both parties.

Longleggedlady · 31-35, F

@SW-User regardless of which side of the fence you are on with this it is half cocked nobody has the mandate to go and destroy peoples lives and livelihoods some will say you cannot predict the outcome but how will people feel about being modest 50% increase on just their groceries could the average family cope with that

SW-User

I don't think it is going to happen, but that shouldn't be because of the leavers constant claims of a democratic will to leave. There quite clearly isnt a clear consensus for anything. Not much more than a third of people voted to leave, and that is before there is any consideration of what people thought they were voting for. I accept that this was more than voted to remain but a simple majority should never have been enough to decide this. I think if there is no clear consensus to change then we should carry on as we are. Even Farage said before the referendum that there would be a strong case for a second referendum in tbe case of a 52-48 vote to remain. I don't think we should be afraid to admit the referendum was a complete fuck up and try again. There would need to be a much clearer question though.

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Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@SW-User It was reported by Stephen Bush that Tory MPs have been told to expect an election on Feb 28th. Obviously, it hasn't happened and it might not.

I don't think Corbyn can negotiate a *good* deal (nothing with more benefits than remaining) but he'd have less red lines than May. I do think he is promising more than he can deliver and I hate saying that but it's true.

SW-User

@Burnley123 Im not sure of the times required but I would have thought it was too late already for an electon on 28th Feb. I may be old and cynical but my best take on the respective strategies is:

May - Delay and fudge as late as possible and get a last minute panic acceptance of her deal.

Corbyn - Make a lot of noise about avoiding a hard Brexit, while hoping for just that and picking up the pieces afterwards.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@SW-User Yeah the time has passed for the 28th and that is why I posted about it in the past tense. I mentioned that as a pointer that the Govt might be considering it for another day.

I don't think Corbyn wants a hard Brexit. I think he prioritises other things and wishes it wasn't happening. He'd want a straight clean ideological fight like the 2017 election but he could not avoid Brexit next time.

I'm not pleased with his strategy and to be clear, it's not completely honest but I'm also not sure he could have another strategy which wouldn't lead to a collapse in the Labour vote. I don't think he can stop Brexit.

Platinum · M

What would it achieve ...if leave won again, we would be in exactly the same position with remainers still complaining and if remain won, there would be utter chaos , probably riots and we would have to go back to the greedy Europe who would treat us like second class citizens and make us suffer.....everyone went into the referendum knowing it was a once in a lifetime vote...

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Longleggedlady · 31-35, F

I wouldn't be prepared to accept food on my table from any of those sources about only thing passable from South America is a good quality Malbec, india spices are gpod besides which they are all long distance which adds to transportation costs and we know where that goes To

Platinum · M

They all export fruit and veg, but as we won't pay high tariffs it should be cheaper ..I like talking to you, you're sensible @Longleggedlady

Longleggedlady · 31-35, F

@Platinum thank you you are frightfully kind

Northwest · M

Brexit was voted on, and it passed. I don't know if a vote on the same thing, would produce different results. What should be done, is come up with a different plan, one that can be implemented, then vote on it. This insures that voters actually know what they're voting on, and will provide a real answer to how Brits feel about it.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Northwest I agree. I think the Labour strategy should be to try and win an election, negotiate a deal and then have a ref on that deal. This would piss plenty of people off and its an awkward plan but it's the best bad idea we have.

Harriet03 · 41-45, F

[image deleted]

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SW-User

@Harriet03 actually

[quote]But none of the billions of baked beans eaten in the UK grow on British soil – yet. The beans, which go by many names – haricot, navy, or phaseolus vulgaris – are all imported,
[/quote]

SW-User

@Harriet03 We are the 51st state afterall.

Harriet03 · 41-45, F

@SW-User Good point!!

SW-User

The only reason I can see for another referendum is that what leave actually meant wasn't known at the time of the 2nd referendum.

However I expect we'll leave with no deal. Be honest I thought that was the original leave option anyway. And I can't see an agreement in time and legally we leave on 29th March deal or no deal.

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SW-User

@Longleggedlady hasn't looked likely so far lol

Longleggedlady · 31-35, F

@SW-User I like freedom if movement and when you have got lots of people negotiating you can get better than single trying to do so

Longleggedlady · 31-35, F

@SW-User same way as her cabinet has suffered casualties and they all rely on donations and financial support regardless of which party it is

This comment is hidden. Show Comment

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@kingkyri No one will be happy with any outcome. Lol

Harriet03 · 41-45, F

We've had 2!
It will be the 3rd, if it happens!!

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Harriet03 Yeah give it another forty years.

SW-User

@Harriet03 best of 5

monkeysdevil007 · 46-50, M

Slumps into corner and slits wrists with a rusty knife ☹️

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monkeysdevil007 · 46-50, M

@Burnley123 Sadly you are right but I think people are confusing the general referendum which was the peoples vote on leave and remain and the vote on the terms of us leaving which was left in the very responsible hands of our elected MPs

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@monkeysdevil007 I agree with that. I don't personally see the problem with a second vote on negotiated terms but most leave voters do. Because of the abysmal media coverage there are many of them who see no deal as a viable option or the only viable option.

monkeysdevil007 · 46-50, M

They would be happy if we just tossed a coin to decide

SW-User

I’ve never seen such paralysis before...any consensus building?

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@SW-User No lol. There are divisions among divisions.

Even among sub-factions (such as the Labour left, remain labor MPs or Tory remainers) there are big differences in strategy.

There is no majority in parliament for any kind of Brexit. Its a double polarisation (or 3D polarisation) . Party divisions coupled with Brexit divisions within our two main parties.

SW-User

That’s insane...so hard Brexit is about to happen?@Burnley123

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@SW-User Not necessarily but it's still possible because it's the legal default option.

Some MPs are trying to vote to extend the deadline. In addition, the EU don't want a no deal Brexit so it's possible they could give us more time. However, time means nothing if it ain't getting fixed.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@RodionRomanovitch That would be hilarious. After he overruled the govt to allow time for that motion, The Sun called him 'The Speaker of the devil' 😄

Xuan12 · 31-35, M

Sounds like a no-win situation.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Xuan12 Exactly that

RodionRomanovitch · 56-60, M

Bercow to the rescue !

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@RodionRomanovitch lol. When they moan about him, leavers actually have a point. He is not neutral.

RodionRomanovitch · 56-60, M

@Burnley123 The Tories always hated him anyway , so just imagine their fury were he to actually thwart their wet dream ! 😁

room101 · 51-55, M

You've changed your tune a bit. Weren't you calling for a second referendum a few months ago?

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@room101 Yes. But public opinion didn't change even after all the carnage in parliament. Its in the comment section.

Attempts to push for a second red won't succeed

room101 · 51-55, M

@Burnley123 You don't have to tell me that. That was my point to you months ago when you were supporting a second referendum.

I'm glad that you have seen the flaw in the strategy. Maybe one day you'll see the flaws in some of the other Corbyn strategies 😉

eli1601 · 70-79, M

I thought the liberal talking point was 97% of climate scientists. It's 98% now?

SW-User

Only Elizabeth II can stop Brexit. It is her sacred duty.

InOtterWords · F

I don't know. Part of me feels rhat to throw it back to the ill-informed british public will just make things worse...but then now there is more understanding of what brexit actually involves maybe the vote is what is needed.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@InOtterWords Trouble is that I don't think there is more understanding of what Brexit involves. Its like I said above, remain voters like us see this as the worst of our predictions coming true and leave voters just blame the EU or bad negotiating.

There has been a hardening of views on both sides so another ref campaign would be even more toxic and no guarantee of a remain win. If leave won again then it would be taken as a mandate for hard Brexit. A remain win would be narrow too and would leave a lot of resentment.

InOtterWords · F

@Burnley123 i agree totally, i just want a last ditch attempt to call the whole thing off

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@InOtterWords I was actually leaning towards a second ref a few weeks ago but what did it for me was that the mother of all clusterf++ks in Parliament had almost no effect on public opinion. If the People's vote was ever gonna have a mandate, it would be from that but sadly it just didn't happen.

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