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Is Britain heading for a no-deal Brexit?

British public opinion doesn't seem to be prepared for this because people just think that 'sanity will prevail'. Also, most Brexit voters do not realise how bad a no-deal Brexit will be.

People have pointed out that 'experts got things wrong' by predicting an immediate recession after the Brexit vote. This was not all experts and certainly not myself but some Brexit voters are taking this to mean all experts must be wrong and/or biased at all times. There is no credible opinion to say that Britain will not be worse off (long and short term) under a no-deal Brexit.

After the referendum two years ago, financial markets essentially bet on a soft-Brexit. Businesses thought that there would a soft and minimal Brexit so money stayed in the country and the value of the pound (more-or-less) held up. As a harder Brexit looks more and more likely, the pound is sinking and businesses are making alternative plans.

Unfortunately, the Government is not making plans for a hard-Brexit. There are no contingencies in place for a big economic crash or instant blockages in trade. The whole Brexit negotiation process seems to inhabit a parallel alternative reality. The BBC is talking about May's palace drama and is doing nothing to prepare public opinion for a crisis which we are not used to.

There are lots of details why a no-deal Brexit could happen but the best way to understand it is as a game of chicken. The EU, Britain's political parties (and factions within those parties) all have good reasons not to blink. Everyone has priorities and the potential to lose the support of their base if they back down. Nobody (bar the ERG) wants the car to crash in a pile-up but nobody wants to be seen as a coward by their own support.

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room101 · 51-55, M

What plans for a hard Brexit could the government realistically make?

Without knowing what our future relationship with the EU was actually going to be, it is almost impossible to make any tangible and realistic plans. For example, the movement of goods. The EU could have allowed us access to customs technology and procedures currently in place. We would therefore only need to implement a sort of domestic interface. Or, the EU could say "sod off", we're going to vet and examine all of your goods. That would mean a whole new set of problems.

My point is, without us first trying to formulate a workable deal with the EU, any plans for hard Brexit would be chaotic.

And I'm sorry to say this (because I know that you support these two) but, Corbyn and his right-hand man McDonnell, are causing far more damage, because they are only concerned with ousting the Tories. They are going against May's deal because it is May's deal. In the last few weeks, every interview that I've seen with those two always centers around the same theme. Vote of no confidence in the government. A general election. And the whole EU merry-go-round starts all over again. With yet more uncertainty, no hard Brexit plans, money being paid to the EU, and on and on and on.

Here's a little example.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tupR2UUYZm8

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room101 · 51-55, M

@Burnley123 That's the issue isn't it? It's what people thought Brexit would mean as opposed to what it does mean.

Brexit means leaving the EU. That's wholly deliverable.
Brexit means we're going to have X, Y and Z. Really 🤔

To be totally honest, I don't know enough about Theresa May, pre-referendum, to be able to comment on what she was and wasn't thinking. Hedging her bets about what? My gut tells me that she, myself included, believed that sense would prevail and a Remain result would be the outcome.

I very much doubt that I would vote for Theresa May as my local MP. However, I do not think that it's fair to call her a bad negotiator. She took on a very difficult task which has been made almost impossible by the dissent in Parliament.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@room101 BTW. Gordon the Gopher (spelling) was Phillip Schofield's puppet when he made his name as a kid's TV presenter. I was into that at the time because I was the right age LOL. I always remember him from that it still feels weird when I see he talking about serious stuff:

room101 · 51-55, M

@Burnley123 😂😂😂 I never knew that!!!!!! Brilliant!

CountScrofula · 41-45, M

I feel like I'm watching someone staring at a dog turd. They look at me, then at the turd. They pick it up, and slowly, slowly bring their hand to their mouth.

I start screaming "What are you doing? That's insane! STOP IT!"

But they just maintain eye contact, grin a little, whisper "This'll show you" and finally chomp down on the turd.

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Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@kingkyri There will, of course, be trade but on what terms. I don't like the EU but its a concrete question on whether leaving now and in these conditions is in Britain's interests.

Rhodesianman · 56-60, M

No deal is better than a lousy deal in which we give up our say on things and ended up being a silent partner and not really leaving the EU .The only deal worth having is a complete break from the EU not some half baked negotiated deal leaving us the loser in the long run.

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Rhodesianman · 56-60, M

@Burnley123 I am British .Rhodesia was part of the Empire and I live in the UK now and hold a british passport .My dad was English my mum was Scottish .

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Rhodesianman You are someone who has come from overseas and who is now a British citizen. In that sense you are like the Windrush Generation or hard-working EU immigrants. I consider you welcome in this country and I thank you for contributing to its cosmopolitan nature.

CountScrofula · 41-45, M

@Burnley123 🤣

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

If I were a British politician with a weak mandate for a Brexit and I had a difficult EU (and when are they not) to deal with and public opinion running against me, I would accept an unacceptable offer from the EU, knowing I couldnt get support in parliament or on the street, . Then I would have the offer rejected by parliament and use that lousy offer and its rejection to steel public opinion behind me and push ahead with a hard Brexit, repeating that this was what you all asked for in rejecting the offer.Interim arrangements and trade deals will happen very quickly when people and goods start piling up. and people will be so happy to get things moving that they wont complain about the fine print.

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whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@room101 To be open, I do not know which side of the coin she is on. But I dont think it matters what her personal view is. I think she will cling to power and sell her soul to the hard Brexit people to do it. And if the people revolt at that idea, her plan B is to back away and "regretfully " use an excuse like a second referendum to remain. But now that looks like even more of a weakened defeat to the people, thanks to the EU inflexible deal offer.

room101 · 51-55, M

@whowasthatmaskedman I don't know if you're abreast of the latest developments but the government has been held in contempt of Parliament. Because they did not release full details of the legal advice given to them by the Attorney General. Client privilege be damned.

It's a shit show!

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@room101 Whatever gets them the outcome the money wants.

Mamapolo2016 · F

I know precious little about this, but this statement struck me.

"There is no credible opinion to say that Britain will not be worse off (long and short term) under a no-deal Brexit."

Is there credible opinion which says it WILL be worse off? And who gets to determine which opinions are credible?

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Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@bowman81 You are allowed to disagree with experts and vote how you like, but we are talking about what is right for the country and the why and how do matter.

People voted for £350 million on a big red bus, controlled immigration and economic prosperity. None of this can happen.

There is no popular consensus for this deal or for the reality of a no-deal Brexit.

QuixoticSoul · 41-45, M

@bowman81 They count. But voters are idiots. This is why the term “credible opinion” was used.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Mamapolo2016 No, your opinions are reasonable and I'm happy to respond.

Yes, the British economy is not in great shape anyway though bad things can always get worse. The bank of England sets interest rates here and though I don't always like them as an institution, they did prevent a greater economic crisis in 2007. Simon-Wren Lewis is an academic who has no direct political power.

There is a consensus between people I like and people don't on this.

Brexit did happen because people are pissed off. There is too much inequality and people are seeing their lives as getting worse. I think Brexit is a fantasy answer to real underlying problems.

Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

Politicians are proving redundant.
It's clear they don't know what they're involved in as they ALL have a different version of what they perceive the REALITY is !

If you saw the grilling Rees-Mogg gave the 'Brexiteer negotiator in chief' earlier today in committee, you'll have seen how politicians view works one way and ministers view, works the other !

The biggest danger the UK faces isn't a sudden leaving of Europe without a deal. It's the realization that NOBODY in Parliament KNOWS ANYTHING ! In EITHER scenario !

gol979 · 41-45, M

Hard brexit for the asset strippers 👍👍

I thought we were getting softened up for a hard brexit but seems like (most) of the establishment want the status quo.

I saw your post earlier about the partial releasing of the legal docs.......democracy at its finest dear fellow

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gol979 · 41-45, M

@Burnley123 of course they do......rees moggs old man wrote the book on disaster capitalism.

Do you think they believe the bullshit about the old British empire and long for those times back or do you think it's naked capitalism.....or a bit of both or other? Lol

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@gol979 I think it depends on the person.

Personally, I think Raab and Javid are just libertarian disaster capitalists who know its the nationalist thing is bullshit. Boris doesn't care about ideology at all and just wants to game the system for power. Some Tory MPs (like Peter Bone) believe in all the Great Britain BS and are ignorant of economics.

I think Mogg is both a nationalist and a disaster capitalist. He's met Steve Bannon and has also spoken in favour of cutting British 'red-tape' to the levels seen in India.

gol979 · 41-45, M

@Burnley123 have you seen what's been happening to the agriculture sector in India? Feudalism at its devastating best

Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

[b]And just for fun....[/b]

Headline: Brexit ministers may have broken rules by not publishing legal advice received prior to the referendum being called.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46435128

room101 · 51-55, M

@Picklebobble2 With respect, you are misquoting the article which you have linked.

The legal advice, which is causing this latest "crises", is on the Brexit deal that Theresa May negotiated with the EU. Therefore, how could it have been published "prior to the referendum being called"?

Also, it is legal advice (given by the Attorney General to it's client ie the Government) and as such, falls under one of the most sacrosanct principles of law, that of client privilege. However, I think that it's not in anybody's interest to keep this legal advice confidential. It should have been published in full.

Picklebobble2 · 56-60, M

@room101 The article quoted covers both issues.

room101 · 51-55, M

@Picklebobble2 Except for the fact that the legal advice could not have been given [b]"prior to the referendum being called".[/b]

helenS · 36-40, F

" 'experts got things wrong'
— A Welsh friend of mine even said "Never trust an expert"…

I think it's really not primarily about the economy. The sad thing is that the British will leave the European family of peoples. They will no longer be Europeans. They will be alone. What will become of them?

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samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

let us hope Brexit doesn't lead to.a divided Europe which for years fought regular wars among its nations for power.

room101 · 51-55, M

@samueltyler2 That's one of the things that many seem to forget. One of the reasons why the EU was originally formed was to bring peace to Europe through trade.

Regardless of my EU scepitism, that's one thing that I have to say it has succeeded in doing.

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@room101 let us hope the peace holds!

Northwest · M

No one will back down. If sanity does prevail, it means one or more parties will look weak. Not an option any longer. Not in the post Brexit / Trump world

Northerner · 70-79, M

Lets hope it is a no deal Brexit.

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Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Northerner If 'survival' is the objective here then that is setting the bar pretty damn low. I forget what benefits Brexit is supposed to deliver and how these relate to the cost.

BTW: the 2007/08 financial crash was caused by bank deregulation and the Labour deficit at the time was negligible.

Northerner · 70-79, M

@Burnley123 hahaha what a clown you are.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Northerner If a hard-Brexit happens, you won't be laughing much...

RodionRomanovitch · 56-60, M

It's heading straight for the crapper if so.

(Hasn't a cross-party amendment just been proposed to head off such a catastrophe ?)

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@RodionRomanovitch It might have been but I doubt it can be successful. May's Bill can't be amended that much because it's been negotiated with the EU. 50-100 Tory MPs will vote against the bill, almost all opposition MPs because nobody can sell it as a good deal.

I am against the deal but there is risk involved because time is running out.

This comment is hidden. Show Comment

room101 · 51-55, M

@Greenbare 🤦‍♂️

alan20 · M

It's the betrayal of an ideal. Ironically, Churchill was one of the first to propose a European union.

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Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@alan20 I think I misunderstood you the first time. I apologise.

Rhodesianman · 56-60, M

@alan20 I disagree the Union wont last its already falling apart and I guarantee in 20 years or so it will have come apart at the seams .We wont be the last to leave.

alan20 · M

@Rhodesianman We really shouldn't be the first. Your pessimism might be justified; I hope not.

TheOneyouwerewarnedabout · 41-45, MVIP

I wouldn’t worry too much about blockage of trade.. someone always loves money enough to fill the void.
Is May the right person for the job. Cameron quit because he didn’t want to do all the hard work then end his time..

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@TheOneyouwerewarnedabout WTO tariffs are 40% in places. It could kill some industries.

alan20 · M

@TheOneyouwerewarnedabout He also called the referendum to silence his right-wing and winning two referenda previously had gone to his head.

TheOneyouwerewarnedabout · 41-45, MVIP

Bullying.. ring Trump. he will do you a good deal 😏

Xuan12 · 31-35, M

Nominal GDP of the UK dropped 8% after the referendum, largely driven by the pound losing nearly 15% of its value. Since 2016 the British economy appears to have been holding its breath, showing almost no motion.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Xuan12 It went down in the immediate aftermath and then recovered slightly during the phoney war period. What I said is true and the markets have been banking on a soft Brexit. Its gone down again since May's deal was announced and is likely to go down further if MPs vote the deal down. My point is to demonstrate that Brexit is bad for the economy, especially a hard or no-deal Brexit.

InOtterWords · F

I give up, its a shambles

MethDozer · M

We will find out in 50 years of dragging feet.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@MethDozer Unfortunately no. A no-deal Brexit is the legal default option and article-50 means that there is a definite time to come to a deal.

MethDozer · M

@Burnley123 Well, how ridculous amount of time it has taken so far to come to any conclusion, one that hasn't even been made yet suggest otherwise.
It's ridiculous this is still being discussed two year later. FFS, shit or get of the pot with it. Do or don't.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@MethDozer On that I agree. So much time has been wasted on negotiations and such pathetically little achieved.

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