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Xuan12 · 31-35, M
Not likely.
1: Kim will keep will try to keep nuclear weapons in secret, even if he says otherwise. It makes no sense for his family and nation to spend 30 years developing them under crippling sanctions, just to give them up so easily. He will try to keep them in secret, no matter what he says. I don't trust his words.
2: China cannot allow North Korea to give too much to South Korea and the US. NK is needed as a buffer zone between Chinese territory and US troops. If Korea unites under US influence, that puts 30,000+ US troops and equipment on the Chinese border, which is a major loss for China strategically. So they will do much to keep that from being a possibility. I believe they may even sabotage, frame, or simply expose Kim if they must, and give themselves pretext to invade if it is needed and practical for them. They will not allow NK to collapse under unfavorable conditions for themselves. They'd rather burn and rebuild it than leave it to the US and her allies.
3. The US is also dangerous to Kim. He is looking out for himself above all, and even if he negotiates favorable terms one day, he knows they can change rapidly. Saddam was once a US ally, later we hung him for "WMDs", but actually money and to get closer to Iran. Kim knows he will never truly be a friend to the West, and he will not try to be. He will merely try to get what he can, and protect himself the best possible. He must balance the US and China against each other to give himself the best chance of survival.
4: Kim's own people are a danger to him. If they saw clearly how weak their nation is, and had the power to do anything about it, they themselves would be a threat to Kim. That is why the government of North Korea devotes so much of it's resources to policing and controlling it's own people. Kim lives well, but he is beset by danger on all sides. His own sword of Damocles.
So whatever resolution there may appear to be will be as all things with North Korea have been for decades, a farce. A manipulation meant only to preserve the Kim dynasty for a while longer.
1: Kim will keep will try to keep nuclear weapons in secret, even if he says otherwise. It makes no sense for his family and nation to spend 30 years developing them under crippling sanctions, just to give them up so easily. He will try to keep them in secret, no matter what he says. I don't trust his words.
2: China cannot allow North Korea to give too much to South Korea and the US. NK is needed as a buffer zone between Chinese territory and US troops. If Korea unites under US influence, that puts 30,000+ US troops and equipment on the Chinese border, which is a major loss for China strategically. So they will do much to keep that from being a possibility. I believe they may even sabotage, frame, or simply expose Kim if they must, and give themselves pretext to invade if it is needed and practical for them. They will not allow NK to collapse under unfavorable conditions for themselves. They'd rather burn and rebuild it than leave it to the US and her allies.
3. The US is also dangerous to Kim. He is looking out for himself above all, and even if he negotiates favorable terms one day, he knows they can change rapidly. Saddam was once a US ally, later we hung him for "WMDs", but actually money and to get closer to Iran. Kim knows he will never truly be a friend to the West, and he will not try to be. He will merely try to get what he can, and protect himself the best possible. He must balance the US and China against each other to give himself the best chance of survival.
4: Kim's own people are a danger to him. If they saw clearly how weak their nation is, and had the power to do anything about it, they themselves would be a threat to Kim. That is why the government of North Korea devotes so much of it's resources to policing and controlling it's own people. Kim lives well, but he is beset by danger on all sides. His own sword of Damocles.
So whatever resolution there may appear to be will be as all things with North Korea have been for decades, a farce. A manipulation meant only to preserve the Kim dynasty for a while longer.
hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M
beckyromero · 36-40, F
I hope so. I really don't think he should be criticized for at least trying to solve that conundrum that too many previous administrations have ignored.
WoodyAq · M
Nope. But then, I don't think anyone can, and I don't blame him for trying.
flipper1966 · M
@WoodyAq I'm just worrying his bungling will end up strengthening N. Korea.
WoodyAq · M
@flipper1966 It might do. But North Korea will still be a basket case anyway, so I don't know how much irreversible damage he could do.
lorne13 · 61-69, M
He tried but no-one in the White House knows wbere Korea is